Value is value, no matter where -- or how -- you find it. And that's what we'll aim to do each week in this space -- find value.
Ben Solak, Seth Walder and Matt Bowen bring different perspectives into how they approach sports betting. Solak leans on his expertise in player evaluation and the X's and O's to find edges, while Walder relies on statistical models to pick out plus-expected value bets. Bowen, a former NFL safety, predicts positive matchups and game winners from tape study and his understanding of the league.
These weekly picks will not be limited to a certain bet type. From spreads and money lines to totals or even defensive player props, a good price might be found anywhere.
Results will be tracked throughout the season, with flat one-unit wagers for each listed bet.
With that, let's dive in to Week 15.
Note: Odds by DraftKings Sportsbook. Defensive prop bets will be added as they become available.
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Game bets | Defensive props | Offensive props
Game bets
Cincinnati Bengals (+124) vs. Baltimore Ravens
Solak: In division rematches, I often default to the team that lost the previous matchup (in this case, the Ravens) winning the following game. Doubly so when the loss was a little silly, as the Ravens turned the ball over five times in their 32-14 Thanksgiving Day loss to the Bengals.
But this is just not a good matchup for Baltimore. Since Week 9, the Ravens' defense is first in EPA per designed run but 14th in EPA per dropback. The Bengals want to be a heavy dropback team anyway. Tee Higgins might be out as he has been in the concussion protocol, but the Ravens have never had a good answer for Ja'Marr Chase, as he has topped 100 receiving yards in his past three outings against the Ravens.
The Bengals' offense has improved as of late, and you saw that improvement against the Buffalo Bills, who had only 11 points at the half and needed 14 points off turnovers to pull away in the fourth quarter. I do not trust the Ravens' offense in any close, late-game scenarios, as their dropback passing game is a mess, and their pass protection is so poor that even the Bengals will generate pressure.
Cleveland Browns +7.5 vs. Chicago Bears (-112)
Solak: It's going to be a brutal game at Soldier Field on Sunday, as temperatures are expected in the single digits with "feels like" numbers in the negatives on the back of gusty winds. The Bears would love to run the football in their typically dominant fashion for this game, but they're facing the league's best run defense by success rate in Cleveland. Even in their two litmus-test games against NFC contenders (Philadelphia and Green Bay) the Bears faced two below-average run defenses. This game will serve as a test of their running game's strengths.
Rome Odunze returned to practice Wednesday in a limited capacity, and he's a must-have for Sunday, as he's quarterback Caleb Williams' preferred target against man coverage. The Browns run man at the second-highest clip in football and Williams is worse against man coverage this season (0.03 EPA per dropback) than he is against zone (0.11 EPA per dropback). If Odunze is at all limited, the Bears' passing game is in dire straits.
Cleveland's offense is clearly better under Shedeur Sanders than it was under Dillon Gabriel, and the Bears' inability to consistently generate pressure should protect Sanders from his worst tendencies as a passer. Expect rookie running back Quinshon Judkins, who has played well this season, to sustain long drives with his physical running style. I expect the clock to move in a run-heavy, low-scoring game that allows Cleveland to stay within a touchdown.
Tennessee Titans at San Francisco 49ers OVER 44.5 (-110)
Solak: The Titans' pass defense has fallen apart in the back half of the season. Most recently, the Titans surrendered 30 points to the Seahawks in only three quarters of non-garbage time, 25 to the Jaguars in only three quarters of non-garbage time, and then 29 to the Browns (along with 364 passing yards for Shedeur Sanders). Now, they get a 49ers offense coming off a desperately needed bye week. San Francisco should be able to clear 30 in three quarters.
But I also like the Titans to score in this one, whether early enough to prevent garbage time, or late in garbage time. The 49ers have the worst team pressure rate in the league, and Titans rookie quarterback Cam Ward has been dramatically affected by pressure this season. The difference between his EPA per dropback when pressured and unpressured is the 13th-biggest gap among starting quarterbacks.
The Titans finally found some explosiveness in their running game last week against the Browns, and I like that to continue against another defense that heavily relies on four-man fronts in San Francisco. Expect an above-average Titans offensive day and too much 49ers firepower to stay below 45 total points.
Green Bay Packers -2.5 at Denver Broncos (-110)
Solak: This is a tough defensive draw for Denver. The Packers run zone coverage at the fourth-highest rate among all defenses, and Bo Nix has been decidedly worse against zone coverage than man coverage this season. His completion percentage against man coverage is 4% above expectation, but against zone coverage it is 6.6% below expectation. As such, his success rate drops from 51% to 42%, and his EPA per dropback falls from 0.24 to 0.03.
The Broncos would love to run on the Packers on early downs and force them into more aggressive early-down pressures, but without J.K. Dobbins, the Broncos have almost abandoned the running game. Over the past four weeks, Denver's 6.0% pass rate above expectation leads the NFL. The Broncos have called a run on only 26.4% of their plays. Rookie running back RJ Harvey had a quality day against the Raiders' defense, but I'm not sure he has yet earned the staff's trust in a big game such as this.
I want to be on Nix's passing unders, but because of the towering pass rate, he might get home in garbage time. As such, I'll lean to the spread, as Green Bay's pass-catching room is much healthier with the return of Christian Watson and Jayden Reed to the active roster. As long as Jordan Love doesn't crumble under the Broncos' pass rush, his receivers have the talent to win against Denver's deep secondary.
Cleveland Browns at Chicago Bears UNDER 38.5 (-105)
Bowen: It's going to be brutally cold Sunday in Chicago at Soldier Field. And we are looking at two teams whose run games are the foundational part of their respective offenses. Old-school game here. Take the under.
Two team, 6-point teaser (-120): Los Angeles Chargers +11.5 at Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions +12 at Los Angeles Rams
Bowen: The Chargers' defense ranks in the top 10 in points allowed and passing yards allowed per game, and I do see perimeter matchups for Justin Herbert and the offense. With the spread moved to +11.5 points, I like the Chargers to cover. In the other game, Matthew Stafford and the Rams will move the ball in this game, and the run defense is for real, but Detroit has the playmakers to create explosive plays against the Rams' secondary. Dan Campbell's team covers the adjusted spread.
Seth Walder's defensive props
Tristan H. Cockcroft explains why Raiders safety Jeremy Chinn and Bengals safety Jordan Battle are worth a start in IDP leagues this week.
Coming soon
Offensive player props
Caleb Williams OVER 16.5 rushing yards (-108)
Bowen: Williams has at least 21 yards rushing in four of his past six games. A natural mover who can get on the edges as a second-reaction runner, Williams will be flushed from the pocket often against Myles Garrett and the Browns' pass rush.
Drake Maye 250-plus yards passing (+131)
Bowen: Let's get some juice on Maye, who has thrown for 250 or more yards in six straight games. And if we go back to the head-to-head matchup with the Bills in Week 5, Maye finished with 273 yards. Look for the Patriots to have answers for the Bills' core zone coverages.
Darius Slayton 40-plus receiving yards (+117)
Bowen: Slayton has topped the 40-yard receiving mark in three of his past four games, and he had one explosive-play reception (20 or more yards) in each game. Slayton also gets a really positive matchup here against the Commanders' defense.
Juwan Johnson OVER 36.5 receiving yards (-113)
Bowen: Johnson has at least 37 yards receiving in four straight games, which includes a season-high 92 yards in the Week 10 matchup against these Carolina Panthers. Johnson is the underneath outlet for rookie quarterback Tyler Shough, plus he has field-stretching ability. The over hits on Sunday against Carolina on the turf in New Orleans.
Kenny Pickett UNDER 185.5 passing yards (-115)
Bowen: Pickett is slated to start for injured Geno Smith on Sunday in Philadelphia. So, expect a lot of quick-game throws here against an Eagles secondary that is sticky in coverage. Plus, Vic Fangio will bring second-level pressure to speed up Pickett's internal clock. The under hits.
Kyle Monangai Anytime TD (+130)
Bowen: Monangai has scored a touchdown in four of his past five games and he has 12 goal-to-go rushes this season. Let's bet on Monangai's red zone usage against Cleveland.
Field Yates explains why he has D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai outside his top-20 running backs despite a likely favorable game script against the Browns.
J.J. McCarthy 34-plus pass attempts (+280)
Walder: There can be understandable trepidation in backing the idea that the Minnesota Vikings would want to have McCarthy throw the ball this many times, but factors outside of the quarterback himself can often contribute heavily to a team's pass rate.
In this case, two big ones spring to mind. First, the Dallas defense leans toward pass-inducing, despite their pre-Quinnen Williams reputation as a run sieve, with the seventh-highest pass rate over expectation allowed. Second, the Vikings are 5.5-point underdogs. That means game script simply could dictate the Vikings will have no choice but to pass down the stretch.
Plus, while I am personally still skeptical of McCarthy, at least he is coming off his best game (even if that was against the Commanders' defense). My model likes McCarthy's overs up and down the board, but saw the most value on this alt line.
Kareem Hunt OVER 1.5 receptions (+111)
Walder: Over the course of this season, I've written about two running back reception angles based on the opponent's defensive style. Running backs record receptions 88% more often (!) when facing zone coverage compared to man, and 75% more often when their opponent is not blitzing compared to when it is.
The Chargers are a double whammy -- they run zone 71% of the time (second most) and blitz only 21% of the time (fourth least). As a result, I'm very happy to back running back receptions against them, and this week's player in prime position to take advantage is Hunt.
Lamar Jackson 34-plus pass attempts (+226)
Walder: The Cincinnati Bengals are the second-worst pass defense in the NFL, giving up 0.20 EPA per opponent dropback. It's part of the reason why their opponents pass on the Bengals more frequently. The defense has the fourth-highest pass rate over expectation against it, per NFL Next Gen Stats, and that's a big reason why my model likes Jackson's over here.
Another factor, though, is the high 51.5-point total -- this game could be a barnburner with Joe Burrow on the other side. And though Baltimore is favored, it is only slightly so (2.5 points), and if it falls behind, Todd Monken might have no choice but to just keep calling for Jackson to throw the ball.
Derrick Henry OVER 9.5 receiving yards (-114)
Solak: Henry has been more involved in the passing game over the past several weeks in Baltimore. He has at least two targets in four of his past five games, and the one in which he didn't -- his last game against the Bengals -- he caught his lone pass for a 44-yard catch-and-run. Henry's increased receiving game usage has coincided with injuries for RB2 Justice Hill, who is still on injured reserve for this game, and quarterback Lamar Jackson's impeded scramble ability.
Against the Bengals, who funnel targets and surrender yardage to running backs at league-leading rates, I like Henry to get multiple looks in the passing game. For a player who tends to rip off big gains when he does catch passes, 9.5 is a soft yardage line.
David Montgomery OVER 9.5 receiving yards (-111)
Solak: It's no secret that Jahmyr Gibbs has produced big in the receiving game over the past month, as the Detroit Lions have found solutions to the lack of Sam LaPorta (and Gibbs' weaknesses in pass protection). As Gibbs has been used more as a pass catcher, Montgomery's route share has gone down -- nine routes in Week 13 against the Packers, seven in Week 14 against the Dallas Cowboys.
Yet he still cleared this number in both of those games. Jared Goff loves throwing the ball to Montgomery on early downs when teams drop into heavy zone coverage, as the Los Angeles Rams love to do. Montgomery's route participation has probably hit a floor, and as 6-point underdogs to the Rams, he'll see an uptick in routes should the Lions trail for the majority of the game.
Expect the Lions to get the ball out of Goff's hands fast to neutralize the Rams' pass rush. That spells a higher volume of RB targets across the board, and some of those will trickle to Montgomery instead of Gibbs.
Tristan H. Cockcroft breaks down why the Cowboys defense is a solid option for Week 15.
Tua Tagovailoa UNDER 29.5 passing attempts (-121)
Solak: Tagovailoa has had fewer than 24 passing attempts in each of his past four games as the Dolphins have heavily skewed to a run-first approach. Of course, these games have largely come on positive game scripts -- the Dolphins led almost pole-to-pole against the Steelers, Saints and Jets over that stretch. Tagovailoa hasn't needed to throw.
But as only 3-point 'dogs in Pittsburgh, it's unlikely the Dolphins will see the sort of big second-half deficit that would warrant a huge number of Tagovailoa attempts. Furthermore, with temperatures expected in the teens and potential snow, Miami coach Mike McDaniel will be further incentivized to take the ball out of Tagovailoa's hands, as he historically struggles in cold weather.
I waffled between this line and under 199.5 total yards. The potential for a huge catch-and-run from De'Von Achane or Jaylen Waddle is dangerous to the yardage prop, but in cold and windy weather, Tagovailoa might have a very low depth of target, which invites his attempt totals. I'll be splitting my exposure across both props, but we'll stick with the passing attempts figure here.
James Cook III OVER 81.5 rushing yards (-114)
Solak: The vaunted New England Patriots run defense has hit a snag over the past month or so. It has allowed opposing offenses to rip off over 5.0 yards per carry in three of the past four games after allowing no offenses to exceed that number in the first 10 games of the season. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New York Jets and Bengals all had success rates above 57% running the football -- the previous season high the Patriots had given up was 50%.
The Bills didn't have a dominant running day against New England in the first matchup, as Cook churned out only 49 yards on his 15 carries -- one of his worst outings of the season. But the Bills have been relying on him more heavily in the back half of the season, and I imagine they will prioritize their running game in an effort to keep Drake Maye and the Patriots' offense on the sideline.
The obvious concern here is game script, as the volatile Bills are always in danger of a sleepy first half and trailing in the second half. I'm happy to keep this bet in hand and hit Josh Allen rushing overs in the second half in the event the Patriots build a big first-half lead. The Bills have the third-highest pass rate over expectation when facing second-half deficits, and Allen's scramble rate doubles on such a game script.