To say this will be a different start to the NHL season is a hefty understatement.
But if we focus on one thing that is really throwing off the fantasy stock market, is has to be the complete lack of a preseason. There are so many wacky, interesting and unexpected line combinations being tested as teams get minimal practice in for the puck drop on Wednesday.
This happens every season, of course, but then the tests and trials are usually followed by a set of preseason games in which the rightful order of things is restored prior to the season beginning.
Given that this is new territory for both the NHL and our fantasy game based on it, predicting how these first few games will play out is difficult. Will the first week or two of the season feel more like a preseason? Will we get to see Joe Thornton's experimental arc on the Toronto Maple Leafs top line play out in a game or two? Will Zach Hyman be back with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner by this time next week?
That's probably how it would have played out in a proper preseason, but perhaps that opportunity to contribute in a meaningful game right out of the gate makes a difference. Maybe Jumbo Joe is leading the league in assists at this time next week. While the Hyman scenario is the more likely of the two, which one has the greater impact on fantasy?
The point here is to suggest that you not shrug off some of the intriguing lineup decisions that we see early on. These aren't preseason games on Wednesday. They are the real deal. Thornton or any number of players in unexpected line roles throughout the league will stick if they have success. The opposite is also true, as more than one standard issue fantasy asset has found himself penicled in on the third line.
Be flexible with your roster and, in a change from the usual messaging for the early season, be a bit reactionary. This year is different, so be prepared to act a little different.
Fantasy Forecaster: Jan. 13 to Jan. 17
A reminder that the forecaster table is driven by available statistics from the season, which at this stage don't exist. The first couple of weeks of the season will rely on last season's data to fuel the calculations.
The first COVID-related postponements of the season have left the Dallas Stars with zero games and the Florida Panthers with only one. Fluidity of the schedule is something else we will have to get used to this season.
For those new to the forecaster chart, here are some explanations: "O" (offense), which is on the left for each game, and "D" (defense), on the right, matchup ratings are based upon a scale from 1 (poor matchup) to 10 (excellent matchup) and are calculated using a formula that evaluates the team's season-to-date statistics, their performance in home/road games depending on where the game is to be played, as well as their opponents' numbers in those categories. The "Ratings" column lists the cumulative rating from 1 to 10 of that week's offensive ("O") and defensive ("D") matchups.
Team notes
Vancouver Canucks: Among the six NHL teams with a three-game schedule for the first scoring period, the Canucks look good for offense with games on the road against the Edmonton Oilers and Calgary Flames. Defensively, of course, that's not such a great assignment and may be reason to not use Braden Holtby or Thatcher Demko for the first week unless you have to. To take advantage of the offensive matchup, Nils Hoglander is probably the only potentially available player with a top-six role out of the gate. He's a smart addition after you stash your initial IR players.
Toronto Maple Leafs: The Leafs also have the benefit of a three-game schedule for Week 1. We've already discussed the fact that Joe Thornton should be added to any lineup given his early assignment with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner. But playing behind that obvious headline are some other sneaky choices. Jimmy Vesey has a plum role with John Tavares and William Nylander to open the season, while veteran Wayne Simmonds appears to have an early role on the top power-play unit. Simmonds built his profile on being a power-play powerhouse, so this assignment is no joke -- even those his statistical output for the past few seasons has been dismal.
Chicago Blackhawks: The Hawks don't have a great three-game schedule with two of their contests against the defending Stanley Cup champs, but it's an opportune schedule. The Hawks play their three games on Wednesday, Friday and Sunday, which is the opposite of the majority of games this week. So, if you can sneak a player or two from this group for daily transaction leagues, it will boost your overall games played. Dylan Strome is the best choice. He's widely available and slated to start the season on a stacked top line with Patrick Kane and Alex DeBrincat.
Player notes
Rasmus Andersson, D, Calgary Flames: Getting first crack at the Flames power play is a big deal. We'll see if Mark Giordano is truly off the unit when the games start counting, but this is definitely worth monitoring, perhaps even taking action on.
Tage Thompson, C/W, Buffalo Sabres: The Sabres appear serious about using Thompson as the opening night winger to Jack Eichel and Taylor Hall. That's worth jumping on board with to see the early returns.
Nick Bjugstad, C/RW, Minnesota Wild: He has a scoring touch, though it's been a half-decade since he flashed it. That said, the Wild don't have a lot of strong options at center and Bjugstad has one first access to be Kirill Kaprizov's pivot. Kaprizov is the type of player you wan't to buy access to in fantasy, even if it means just rostering his centerman.
Jack Studnicka, C, Boston Bruins: The first candidate to replace David Pastrnak for the first month or so of the season is the untested Studnicka. He scored a decent amount in his rookie run in the AHL last season and anyone getting time with Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand is at least worth a look. But without the accompanying power-play time, which Studnicka will not get, he is for deep leagues only.
Vincent Trocheck, C/RW, Carolina Hurricanes: Trocheck's relevant fantasy seasons have come when he was playing big minutes on his team's top power play. It looks like he'll have a role there to start the season. If you prefer known quantities to some of the above suggestions, Trocheck is available in a lot of leagues.
Mikhail Grigorenko, C, Columbus Blue Jackets: I can't quit Grigorenko, even after a three-year absence from the NHL. He scored a ton in the KHL, is back for a second chance and has been displayed as a potential top-line winger by the Blue Jackets. It has to be worth a shot, right?
Chandler Stephenson, C/LW, Vegas Golden Knights: If Cody Glass is the eventual answer for the center spot between Mark Stone and Max Pacioretty, the Golden Knights are slow-playing their hand. Stephenson will open the season in the role, which essentially makes him the Knights top centerman. He won't see power-play work, but given his wingers, he might not need to in order to earn fantasy value.