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Washington Wizards: 2015-16 Forecast

East No. 4 | East No. 6 | Full List


No. 5: Washington Wizards

Last Season: 46-36
5th place in East; Lost 4-2 to Atlanta in Round 2


Welcome to Durantapalooza. The Wizards have reached the playoffs for two straight seasons and already employ an MVP candidate in waiting. But make no mistake about it: Every play on the court and every droplet of 'Zards-related news this season will carry an undercurrent of, "So, what does this mean for the Kevin Durant chase?"

In John Wall and Bradley Beal, the Wizards have a young backcourt brimming with talent. But the frontcourt is a bit of a question mark, and so is the coaching staff led by the enigmatic Randy Wittman.

The team will have the max cap space to chase Durant when he becomes a free agent in 2016 and should do everything it can to lure the hometown product back to D.C. Being a title contender this season could do wonders to that end.

Following an unexpected trip to the Eastern Conference semifinals in 2014, the Wizards were poised to crash the East finals party with Paul Pierce in tow. After bursting to a 19-6 record, the Wizards struggled through the dog days of the schedule, going 3-9 in February with a worse point differential than the Philadelphia 76ers.

The offense went through long stretches of being unwatchable thanks to Wittman's infatuation with midrange jumpers at the expense of 3s. The Wizards settled for 28.9 midrange jumpers per game, the third-highest frequency in the NBA, despite shooting them at a below-average rate. With a high turnover rate to boot, the team finished with the NBA's 19th-best offense.

The Wizards took off their 3-hating mask and underwent a makeover in the postseason. After shirking the 3-pointer in the regular season, the Wizards began firing up 3s at a higher rate than the San Antonio Spurs did during the regular season. In fact, the difference in 3-point rate (as a percentage of overall field goal attempts) from the playoffs to the regular season was the fourth-largest change of any team in the past 10 postseasons.

What's most fascinating is that the three teams that saw a more dramatic change than Washington were massive underdogs in their first-round matchups. In essence, the Wizards were playing like scrappy long shots trying to carve out an edge. This was certainly the case against the top-seeded Hawks, but the 3-happy turn happened long before in a sweep of the Toronto Raptors.

In the end, the Wizards just couldn't get enough scoring punch without Wall (broken wrist) at 100 percent and found themselves ousted in the second round. Again.