LOS ANGELES -- There are multiple ways to find a quarterback. Making aggressive moves up the first-round board is increasingly the way of the NFL world.
That was a clear takeaway when I asked three NFL personnel evaluators to reselect the top 10 slots in the 2016 draft. The Philadelphia Eagles-Los Angeles Rams game on Sunday night game was a natural hook for the exercise even though Carson Wentz's back injury left Jared Goff to represent the top of the class.
The Rams (Goff), Eagles (Wentz), Kansas City Chiefs (Patrick Mahomes) and Houston Texans (Deshaun Watson) were the most aggressive quarterback-movers in the 2016 and 2017 drafts. The Chicago Bears (Mitchell Trubisky) moved up one spot within the top three picks in 2017.
Four of those teams won a division title with their new quarterback within two seasons, and a fifth, Houston, is on the verge of doing so. There were other factors at work, of course, as football is a team game. But in every case, the teams making the selections either already had excellent plans for their quarterbacks or recalculated effectively after Year 1.
It's something to keep in mind for 2019 because several teams near the top of the projected order already have quarterbacks, which could make them sellers. Until then, we proceed with the 2016 top 10 re-draft.
2016 NFL re-draft version 1: Original order with no trades
When I first reached out to the three evaluators -- GM1, GM2 and GM3 for our purposes -- the assumption was that we would re-draft based on the final order. That became the less interesting route, however, because the quarterback trade-ups by the Eagles and Rams set those teams on such a logical course. They basically had to take quarterbacks after moving up.
This first version of the re-draft resets the order with Tennessee and Cleveland holding the top two spots. We'll follow up this version with a look at the three general managers' picks for the post-trades 2016 order.
"You trade up for who you think is your guy," GM1 said. "It can work if the head coach, GM, coordinator and quarterback coach all think this is their guy, and they are all excited to come to work. Just look at these five teams."
1. Tennessee Titans (traded pick to Rams)
GM1: Ezekiel Elliott
GM2: Joey Bosa
GM3: Ezekiel Elliott
Wait, two GMs really put a running back at No. 1 in a "keep their picks" scenario? It felt like Saquon Barkley over Sam Darnold all over again.
These re-draft results show how unrealistic it can be for teams already with a potential franchise QB to remain in their slots at the top. The trick is trading out of those spots while still landing one of the draft's elite talents. Elliott is one of those elite talents. Bosa, Jalen Ramsey and Tyreek Hill might be the others.
If you're not looking for a quarterback at the top, someone else might be.
"NFL ownership typically doesn't have the patience for you to build a team," GM1 said. "They want pretty darn quick satisfaction, and they have gotten it with these trades over the past few years."
GM2 sent the draft's top pass-rushing force (Bosa) to the Titans with heavy emphasis on positional value.
GM1 liked adding a potential Hall of Fame back to that Titans team, suggesting there is value in fielding elite triplets at quarterback, running back and receiver. The Titans had just drafted Marcus Mariota a year earlier. Elliott would have given them another leg to stand on offensively.
Jim Kelly, Thurman Thomas and Andre Reed fueled Buffalo's glory years. Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith and Michael Irvin drove Dallas in the same era. Kurt Warner, Marshall Faulk and Isaac Bruce/Torry Holt lifted the Rams to record heights during the Mike Martz years.
This season, Kansas City seemed unstoppable with Mahomes, Kareem Hunt and Hill (plus Travis Kelce and Sammy Watkins) leading the offense. The current Rams have built around Goff, Todd Gurley and Brandin Cooks. The Saints have Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas.
Faulk (second) and Gurley (10th) were top-10 picks. Smith went in the first round (17th), Thurman Thomas in the second round, with Hunt and Kamara going in the third.
"Knowing what we know now, Zeke on Tennessee's offense would move them to a higher level than adding Bosa to their D-line," GM3 said. "They have some pass-rushers and corners, although they could always upgrade. Jalen Ramsey may be the other one that would have made the most sense, and then [Titans coach Mike] Vrabel coached Bosa at Ohio State, so that could be his guy."
2. Cleveland Browns (traded pick to Eagles)
GM1: Carson Wentz
GM2: Carson Wentz
GM3: Carson Wentz
There was no consensus among the GMs that Wentz was a better quarterback than Goff. GM1 had Goff rated higher than Wentz heading into the draft. But all agreed that Wentz, with his superior size and strength, might have been the better choice for a bad-weather team such as the Browns.
"Goff is better than Wentz at seeing it quickly, getting it out quickly and accurately," GM1 said. "Wentz is more like a [Ben] Roethlisberger type. My concern on him coming out was that he could struggle behind a bad offensive line. The fear was that he could develop bad habits trying to get it out fast."
The Browns had a lot of problems in 2016, but they did have Joe Thomas manning the left tackle spot. Had they drafted Wentz, it is conceivable that Thomas might still be playing for the Browns this season. Instead, the Browns started DeShone Kizer, Cody Kessler, Robert Griffin III, Josh McCown and Kevin Hogan at quarterback before using the 2018 first overall choice on Baker Mayfield.
3. Los Angeles Chargers (selected Joey Bosa)
GM1: Joey Bosa
GM2: Jalen Ramsey
GM3: Joey Bosa
Not much to discuss here. Bosa was the Chargers' actual pick, and he has been an excellent one despite some injury concerns. GM2 liked Bosa so much, he sent him to Tennessee first overall. That left Ramsey as the next elite player available.
"Talent-wise, Ramsey is everything you want him to be," GM2 said.
4. Dallas Cowboys (selected Ezekiel Elliott)
GM1: Jared Goff
GM2: Jared Goff
GM3: Dak Prescott
Elliott was still available in GM2's scenario, but Goff represented the better positional value for a team that landed Prescott with its fourth-round choice after scrambling unsuccessfully to land Paxton Lynch in the first. GM3 bucked convention by sending Dak Prescott to Dallas when Goff was an option.
"I feel as though they are relatively even," GM3 said of Goff and Prescott. "A lot of Goff is because of the system and the coach. Dak is already in Dallas, and we know it is a good fit, so that is a factor in my thinking."
Prescott has held the ball too long and taken too many sacks while losing too many fumbles, GM3 acknowledged.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars (selected Jalen Ramsey)
GM1: Jalen Ramsey
GM2: Ezekiel Elliott
GM3: Jared Goff
Blake Bortles tossed 35 touchdown passes in 2015, more than tripling his total from his 2014 rookie season. That created the impression Bortles was ascending, even though his QBR was average (51.4) and there was a garbage-time component to the statistical gains.
"I never thought Bortles was the answer, and that was my reasoning for giving them Goff here," GM3 said.
For GM2, sending Elliott to the Jaguars would have spared Jacksonville from using the fourth pick of the 2017 draft on Leonard Fournette. Jacksonville could have instead used that selection for Mahomes (selected 10th by Kansas City) or Watson (12th to Houston), solving a quarterback quandary that continues today.
6. Baltimore Ravens (selected Ronnie Stanley)
GM1: Laremy Tunsil
GM2: Tyreek Hill
GM3: Jalen Ramsey
Stanley was a good selection for the Ravens in this spot and a less controversial one than Tunsil would have been at the time, for reasons related to the gas-mask video of Tunsil that surfaced on draft day. Some felt Tunsil has become the better player, which is why GM1 sent him to Baltimore.
GM2 threw a curve here with Hill in the top 10. He liked the Stanley pick enough to send the tackle to Baltimore in the other version of this re-draft. He also thought Hill's game-breaking athleticism could have jump-started the Ravens' offense.
Ramsey would have fit right in as an unapologetically aggressive corner joining an unapologetically aggressive defense.
"You can find receivers anywhere, and that is why I did not have Michael Thomas or Tyreek Hill as a top-10 player," GM3 said.
7. San Francisco 49ers (selected DeForest Buckner)
GM1: Dak Prescott
GM2: Dak Prescott
GM3: Deion Jones
Chip Kelly was the 49ers' new head coach heading into the 2016 draft. Some assumed Colin Kaepernick would fit Kelly's offense, but Blaine Gabbert emerged as the 49ers' starter. Kaepernick was ranked 29th and in the fourth tier of my 2016 QB Tiers survey that summer, before his protests would lead to accusations of collusion to keep him out of the league.
Enter Prescott, who might have given Kelly a better shot at succeeding right away or at least selling hope for the future.
GM3 was the only one to place Jones in the top 10 on the re-drafts. Atlanta selected the linebacker in the second round, 52nd overall.
"Knowing after the fact about all the stuff that would happen with Reuben Foster and how desperate San Francisco is for a linebacker, those things went into it," GM3 said. "You don't take a linebacker that high as a general rule, but just looking at the best pure players from that draft, Jones stands out. So does [Kevin] Byard. You could make the case they've been as good or better than Ramsey and Bosa."
8. Miami Dolphins (traded pick to Eagles)
GM1: Jack Conklin
GM2: Ronnie Stanley
GM3: Yannick Ngakoue
Adam Gase was entering his first season as head coach in 2016. The team's offensive line was two-plus years removed from the Richie Incognito situation and one year away from the Chris Foerster situation. The Dolphins would spend the next couple of seasons seeking stability on their line and within the locker room.
GM1, having sent Tunsil to Baltimore at No. 6, thought Conklin could have helped the Dolphins on the line and in the locker room. The former Michigan State left tackle would have projected to the left side of Miami's line. GM2 placed Stanley in that role for the Dolphins at No. 8, while GM3 thought Ngakoue's pass-rushing would have provided the greatest value.
"I like Conklin," GM 2 said, "but I think he is a right tackle."
As things turned out, the Dolphins traded down to the 13th spot in a deal that sent Kiko Alonso and Byron Maxwell from the Eagles to Miami. Philadelphia then sent the eighth pick to Cleveland as part of its positioning to land Wentz. The Dolphins came away with arguably the best left tackle in the draft when they used the 13th pick for Tunsil. They also still have Alonso, a productive linebacker.
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (traded pick to Bears)
GM1: Xavien Howard
GM2: Xavien Howard
GM3: Kevin Byard
GM1 and GM2 saw Howard as the cornerback alternative to Vernon Hargreaves, the corner Tampa Bay selected 11th overall after trading down.
"Howard has the ball skills to separate him from someone like [fellow 2016 draft steal James] Bradberry," GM1 said.
Howard, selected 38th overall by Miami, and Byard, chosen 52nd by Tennessee, rocketed into the top 10 on this re-draft. Byard could have helped solve problems at safety that existed even before injuries weakened the position this season.
"I feel like everyone is overlooking Kevin Byard," GM3 said after seeing the picks GM1 and GM2 made. "He is one of the best safeties in the NFL and no one is talking about him. He is such a good player."
10. New York Giants (selected Eli Apple)
GM1: Ronnie Stanley
GM2: Jack Conklin
GM3: Ronnie Stanley
The Giants headed into 2016 hoping Ereck Flowers would become their franchise left tackle. The situation deteriorated to the point that the team invested in veteran Nate Solder this past offseason, then released Flowers in October.
Criticism of the Solder signing typically focuses on the value he provides as a player on the field. The Giants were also seeking to improve the offensive line meeting room by upgrading leadership at the position. This re-draft allowed our GMs to retroactively address those issues in one move. Stanley or Conklin would have given the Giants a young leader to build around up front.
Here's a look at how each of our GMs re-drafted the top 10 in this scenario:
2016 NFL re-draft version 2: Order after trades
GM1 made no changes to the top five picks when we left the draft order as it stood following trades. GM2 kept the first six selections the same. GM3 left alone the top four picks. The more interesting choices followed from there.
1. Los Angeles Rams (selected Jared Goff)
GM1: Jared Goff
GM2: Jared Goff
GM3: Jared Goff
The previous exercise saw all three GMs sending Wentz to Cleveland at No. 2, ahead of Goff. All three had Goff going to the Rams at No. 1 in this version. Why break up what such a good marriage when fit is such a big part of success?
2. Philadelphia Eagles (selected Carson Wentz)
GM1: Carson Wentz
GM2: Carson Wentz
GM3: Carson Wentz
Wentz played all 16 games as a rookie. He played 13 games last season. It looks like he might play only 11 this season. The knee and back injuries that have derailed Wentz over the past two seasons were not worrisome enough for the GMs to send the quarterback anywhere but Philly at No. 2.
3. Los Angeles Chargers (selected Joey Bosa)
GM1: Joey Bosa
GM2: Joey Bosa
GM3: Joey Bosa
GM2 said the Chargers would select Bosa "without a doubt" if given another chance.
Bosa ranks 12th in sacks with 27 since entering the league. The defenders with more sacks over that span have played hundreds of additional snaps on passing downs in most cases. Bosa missed the first four games of his career and the Chargers' first nine games this season. Injuries will become a concern if the missed games continue, but for now, the production is too great to ignore.
"I think he was probably the best pick coming out of college," GM1 said.
4. Dallas Cowboys (selected Ezekiel Elliott)
GM1: Ezekiel Elliott
GM2: Ezekiel Elliott
GM3: Ezekiel Elliott
Wentz and Goff were both unavailable under this scenario. Notably, all three GMs sent Elliott to Dallas when Prescott was available.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars (selected Jalen Ramsey)
GM1: Jalen Ramsey
GM2: Jalen Ramsey
GM3: Dak Prescott
There's nothing wrong with Ramsey in this slot ... unless you think the Jaguars needed to do whatever it took to upgrade at quarterback.
In 2014, the Jaguars preferred Bortles to a group featuring Johnny Manziel, Teddy Bridgewater, Derek Carr and Jimmy Garoppolo. The Rams and Eagles leapfrogged them for quarterbacks two years later. In 2016, the Jaguars snagged Fournette fourth overall when other teams were scrambling for Mahomes and Watson.
6. Baltimore Ravens (selected Ronnie Stanley)
GM1: Laremy Tunsil
GM2: Ronnie Stanley
GM3: Jalen Ramsey
The Ravens couldn't lose in this slot. They either get an upper-level left tackle or one of the NFL's most talented cornerbacks.
7. San Francisco 49ers (selected DeForest Buckner)
GM1: Dak Prescott
GM2: Dak Prescott
GM3: Deion Jones
Goff, Wentz and Prescott were not available to the 49ers in GM3's scenario, so he again gave them a linebacker not named Reuben Foster.
8. Tennessee Titans (selected Jack Conklin)
GM1: Tyreek Hill
GM2: Michael Thomas
GM3: Kevin Byard
Improving the weaponry for Mariota is the theme running through both re-drafts for the Titans. GM1 and GM2 sent wide receivers to Tennessee in this version. They had Elliott heading to the Titans in the previous version.
9. Chicago Bears (selected Leonard Floyd)
GM1: Michael Thomas
GM2: Tyreek Hill
GM3: Yannick Ngakoue
The Bears jumped into this spot for fear the Giants were going to select Floyd. Both teams might have been better off if the Bears' feared scenario had played out. The Giants would have been much better off with Floyd instead of Apple, while the Bears could have gotten Ngakoue in their original spot, which was No. 11.
"Floyd is not a bad player," GM1 said. "You could flip him out for Michael Thomas or Yannick Ngakoue if you wanted to."
10. New York Giants (selected Eli Apple)
GM1: Xavien Howard
GM2: Laremy Tunsil
GM3: Ronnie Stanley
The Giants either get a better corner (Howard) or an offensive tackle for the long term. Conklin was another consideration for GM2.
Here's a look at how each of our GMs re-drafted the top 10 in this scenario: