While those of us on the outside have only begun thinking about the NFL offseason after the Chiefs beat the Eagles in Super Bowl LVII earlier this month, the league's 32 teams have been preparing their plans for weeks, if not months.
Every organization always has one eye on the present and the other on the future, but once their seasons ended, it was full-speed ahead in preparing for March's player movement window.
Over the past two weeks, I've been breaking down the first key move each team should make before free agency begins. I hit the 16 NFC teams last week, and I'm evaluating each AFC squad this week. In some cases, it might not be the most important move of the entire offseason, with the Bears and what they do with the No. 1 overall pick as an example of where those two priorities differ. In many cases, this will be resolving a messy salary cap situation, retaining a key player or deciding whether to let a franchise stalwart leave for another team.
The Chiefs are relatively stable, but should the Bills let a critical piece of their rebuild leave? Should the Jets trade for Aaron Rodgers? And what will the Ravens do with Lamar Jackson? You can see my predicted first moves for all 32 teams, starting with Buffalo and their most difficult decision of the offseason:
Jump to a team:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
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AFC EAST
Buffalo Bills
Get a new deal done with Jordan Poyer.
After a frustrating end to their season, the Bills have to make a handful of significant decisions. They will likely restructure quarterback Josh Allen's deal in their efforts to clear out the $18.7 million in room they need to be cap compliant, but they have pending free agents in key roles on both sides of the football.
With all due respect to running back Devin Singletary, the most important decisions will come on defense, where both Poyer and Tremaine Edmunds are unrestricted free agents. With Buffalo already paying one player at safety (Micah Hyde) and at off-ball linebacker (Matt Milano), it would be tough for the organization to bring back both players for another season. It's more likely the Bills bring back one of those two starters, who have been regulars during the Sean McDermott era.
If the Bills can only have one, you can make a case for preferring Edmunds. At age 24, Edmunds might have his best football ahead of him, while Poyer is 31. Edmunds is coming off his best season, as he posted a career-best 69.9 passer rating allowed in coverage while missing just one tackle. The team might have started its rebuild by establishing a dominant duo in Hyde and Poyer, but its new essential combination might be Edmunds and Milano.
At the same time, Poyer has been such an impactful safety over the past six seasons. Edmunds has been far more inconsistent. The Bills allowed an additional half-yard per pass attempt when Poyer was off the field last season, a notable gap given that he missed four games via injury, with two of them coming against Kenny Pickett and Zach Wilson, who weren't exactly slinging the ball downfield.
Buffalo doesn't really have a replacement for Poyer on the roster. Dean Marlowe is a free agent and primarily a special-teamer, while Damar Hamlin's future in the NFL is uncertain after his cardiac arrest against the Bengals in January. General manager Brandon Beane used a third-round pick last year on Terrel Bernard, whose physical tools should help him step in if Edmunds leaves. With Hyde returning from his neck injury, I'd like to see the league's best safety duo ride for at least one more campaign.
