There are seven weeks until NFL training camp, more than three months until the 2024 regular season and nearly a year until the 2025 NFL draft. We know what you're thinking: Is it too early to think about the 2025 draft? The answer is no.
Let's take a first look at the projected first-round draft order for 32 teams with ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI). The FPI projects the draft order by simulating the season 10,000 times. Game probabilities are based largely on the model's ratings for individual teams in addition to game locations. The order is based on the records the model believes the teams will have after 17 games and each team's average draft position in the simulations.
After you check out the full 1-32 projection for the 2025 NFL draft below, take a glance at more FPI takeaways for the upcoming season.
1. New England Patriots
Average draft position: 5.1
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 21.9%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 66.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 87.4%
2. Carolina Panthers
Average draft position: 5.7
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 20.8%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 62.9%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 84.7%
3. Denver Broncos
Average draft position: 7.0
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 12.4%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 50.9%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 77.1%
4. Tennessee Titans
Average draft position: 9.1
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 7.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 36.7%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 65.1%
5. Washington Commanders
Average draft position: 9.8
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 5.7%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 32.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 60.8%
6. New York Giants
Average draft position: 9.8
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 5.8%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 32.4%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 60.9%
7. Minnesota Vikings
Average draft position: 10.7
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 4.7%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 28%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 54.8%
8. Las Vegas Raiders
Average draft position: 11.2
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 3.56%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 25.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 52.1%
9. Arizona Cardinals
Average draft position: 11.6
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 3.5%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 23.4%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 50.5%
10. New Orleans Saints
Average draft position: 13.1
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 2.6%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 19.4%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 43.6%
11. Seattle Seahawks
Average draft position: 14.1
FPI chance to earn top-5 pick: 13.9%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 36.1%
12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Average draft position: 14.4
FPI chance to earn top-5 pick: 14%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 36.6%
13. Pittsburgh Steelers
Average draft position: 14.9
FPI chance to earn top-5 pick: 11.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 30.9%
14. Indianapolis Colts
Average draft position: 15.0
FPI chance to earn top-5 pick: 13.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 33.2%
15. Jacksonville Jaguars
Average draft position: 15.8
FPI chance to earn top-5 pick: 11%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 29.5%
16. Cleveland Browns
Average draft position: 15.9
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 26%
17. Chicago Bears
Average draft position: 16.2
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 27.4%
18. Los Angeles Chargers
Average draft position: 16.8
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 24.9%
19. Los Angeles Rams
Average draft position: 17.9
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 19.2%
20. New York Jets
Average draft position: 18.5
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 36.6%
21. Miami Dolphins
Average draft position: 20.2
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 18.2%
22. Atlanta Falcons
Average draft position: 20.2
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 14.8%
23. Houston Texans
Average draft position: 21.3
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 10%
24. Green Bay Packers
Average draft position: 21.4
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 9.6%
25. Cincinnati Bengals
Average draft position: 22.5
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 6.6%
26. Buffalo Bills
Average draft position: 22.5
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 6.9%
27. Dallas Cowboys
Average draft position: 23.6
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 4.9%
28. Philadelphia Eagles
Average draft position: 23.6
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 4.9%
29. Baltimore Ravens
Average draft position: 24.3
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 3.1%
30. Detroit Lions
Average draft position: 24.4
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 3.5%
31. Kansas City Chiefs
Average draft position: 25.7
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 2.3%
32. San Francisco 49ers
Average draft position: 25.8
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 2.1%