SEATTLE -- With nine minutes and 48 seconds left in the fourth quarter on Thursday night against the Seattle Seahawks, the Los Angeles Rams had a win probability of 98.8%, according to ESPN Analytics.
The Rams, leading by 16 points, had just intercepted a Sam Darnold pass deep in their own territory and appeared to be in control of the game.
Instead, the Rams had three straight three-and-outs, and kicker Harrison Mevis missed a 48-yard field goal. Los Angeles failed to score again in regulation. The Seahawks tied the game with less than seven minutes remaining in the fourth quarter and won in overtime, 38-37.
It was the Rams' second loss in franchise history when leading by at least 16 points in the fourth quarter, according to ESPN Research. They also became the first team in NFL history to lose after recording 500 yards of offense and a plus-3 turnover margin.
Had the Rams won, they would have controlled their destiny in the NFC West, with a 91% chance to win the division for the second season in a row, according to ESPN Analytics. They also would have remained the current top seed in the NFC, a spot now occupied by the Seahawks.
Instead, the Rams could end Week 16 as the No. 6 seed and in third place in the NFC West if the San Francisco 49ers beat the Indianapolis Colts on Monday night. The Rams, now 11-4 after the loss Thursday, play the Atlanta Falcons in Week 17 and host the Arizona Cardinals in Week 18. According to ESPN Analytics, the Rams' chances to win their division have fallen to 30%.
The loss to the Seahawks was the second time the Rams have blown a large lead this season. In Week 3, the Rams led the Philadelphia Eagles 26-7 early in the third quarter. They failed to score again and wound up losing the game.
Rams defensive tackle Kobie Turner, a team captain, said he wasn't worried because there have "been plenty of times where we have lost, and we come back stronger than ever."
"The good thing is this isn't a January game when it really, really counts, where you lose and you're out," Turner added. "We are still living; we are still swinging. There's some things that weren't characteristic of us that went down, but we are in the big dance. Anything we take whether it's a learning opportunity, or a chance to improve, so not really much of a challenge.
"We have proven exactly who we are, and we are going to go back and prepare. Again, I'm excited. Obviously, I'd be a hell of a lot more excited coming off a win, but I'm excited to prove again who we are."
According to Elias, the Rams are just the fourth 10-win team in NFC history to blow multiple 15-point leads in a season, joining the 1983 Raiders, 1988 Oilers and 2022 Ravens.
After Thursday's game, quarterback Matthew Stafford downplayed what the loss meant for the Rams' playoff seeding. Los Angeles had clinched a playoff spot with its Week 15 victory over the Detroit Lions.
"Go play," Stafford said of the team's mindset. "Where are we playing? Who are we playing? Put the ball down. Prepare. Go play. That's the attitude this team has had since Day 1. It's the attitude we're going to have until the last game we play this year.
"Listen, respect everybody, fear nobody. Go play."