The 2023 NFL season kicks off Thursday with a matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5, 52.5) and Detroit Lions from Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. The Chiefs are coming off their second Super Bowl championship in the past four seasons, while the Lions were the league's most improved team in 2022, finishing 9-8 after going 3-13-1 in 2021.
What can we expect from a betting standpoint for Thursday night's game? How do you factor in Travis Kelce's hyperextended knee and the possibility that he misses the game?
Betting analysts Tyler Fulghum, Anita Marks, Erin Dolan, Eric Moody and Seth Walder are here to provide their thoughts heading into this one.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise indicated.
The Chiefs (-4.5, 52.5) get the home opener against a Lions team that finished last season strong. With the status of both Travis Kelce (hyperextended knee) and Chris Jones (contract) up in the air, do you anticipate this game being a high-scoring affair?
Marks: I like the UNDER here at 52.5. The possible loss of Kelce is huge for a Kansas City offense that is already lacking a No. 1 wide receiver. Kelce is a touchdown machine, and without him, it will be more difficult to find the end zone. The Lions' defense has improved this offseason with the addition of Moseley, Sutton and Gardener-Johnson in the secondary, along with drafting Jack Campbell at linebacker. Over their last 10 games of the 2021 season, the Lions held five opponents to fewer than 20 points. Opening games do not typically hit the over.
Fulghum: I still like the OVER in this game despite the potential loss of Kelce. He is still the best pass-catcher in this Chiefs offense, but Mahomes at home is still Mahomes at home and we're now getting a smaller number to clear. Let's not forget this Detroit defense was one of the worst in the NFL last season, and although the Lions have made some upgrades on paper, I need to see it to believe it. Without Jones on the Kansas City defense, Jared Goff and the Lions offense should have an easier time moving the ball efficiently, so I fully expect both offenses to operate at a crisp pace, put the ball in the air to test the opposing defense and score points in this game.
The Lions finished last season as one of the hottest teams in the NFL and narrowly missed the playoffs. They enter 2023 as the favorites to win the NFC North (+140). Are you buying the Lions hype this season?
Walder: I'm somewhat wary. Clearly, the offense worked last year (it ranked fourth in EPA per play), and a lot of credit goes to offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, who is back. But the receiving core is questionable after Amon-Ra St. Brown, the offensive line is overrated in terms of pass protection and the defense is improved but still doesn't look great on paper. I'm still picking them to reach the playoffs, but based on the current odds if I'm betting on a team to win that division it's the Packers.
Fulghum: I'm cautiously optimistic but certainly not confident buying the Lions as the division favorite. The NFC North is still wide open. Minnesota will regress from last season, but that was still a 13-win team. The Packers lost Aaron Rodgers and are now turning to the very unproven Jordan Love, but they have the most built-up equity as a franchise in this division by miles. And then there's the Bears, who aren't going to lose 14 games like a season ago. The Lions are going to be better. The question is, by how much? I'd much rather bet on one of the three other teams than Detroit to win this division and get a better ROI.
Dolan: The Lions gained hype because they finished 8-2 down the stretch and made some good offseason additions. I am not bought in on them, however. In case you forgot, the Lions ranked dead last in yards allowed per game last season. The Lions made some additions to the defensive side of the ball, including C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Cam Sutton and Emmanuel Moseley, but I am not sold on them to win the division at +140. The Vikings to win the division at 3-1 is more enticing.
Patrick Mahomes enters his seventh NFL season looking to repeat as regular-season MVP. He has a season total prop of 37.5 passing touchdowns. How are you approaching Mahomes this season, either for tonight or looking at his futures?
Walder: It might be a boring bet, but I like Mahomes at +600 to win MVP. He's clearly the best quarterback in the league right now and if he has the best numbers, he'll probably win. Narratively, it's there for him still: The team lacks receivers and now Kelce might miss time. If Mahomes can still lead the Chiefs to success -- and I think he will -- that will only bolster his case.
Fulghum: I agree with everything Seth wrote. He nailed it regarding how to approach Mahomes this season. As far as Thursday night's opener against the Lions, I'm not betting against Mahomes. He's at home. Andy Reid has had all preseason to prepare for this game -- even the loss of Kelce. I trust they'll live up to their end of the bargain offensively, even given the extenuating circumstances.
Mahomes reached 300 yards passing in 10 of 17 games last season, including one stretch when he did so for six games in a row. He has a passing yards prop of 298.5 in the opener against the Lions. Is this a number where you're looking to bet the over most of the time, or does the potential absence of Kelce change your thinking?
Moody: You should still bet the over on Mahomes' passing yards prop. Since becoming the starter in 2018, he has averaged 303.3 passing yards per game. With Kelce off the field, Mahomes' quarterback rating and yards per pass attempt are lower, but his completion percentage remains the same. The Lions' defense allowed 245.8 passing yards per game last season, third most in the league. There are still several receivers Mahomes can throw to, including Skyy Moore, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Kadarius Toney and running back Jerick McKinnon. Noah Gray could play a bigger role if Kelce is out. There's no doubt head coach Andy Reid will make the right adjustments. It will be difficult for the Lions to contain the Chiefs' passing game.
Is there anything else you are playing in this game?
Dolan: Jerick McKinnon Anytime TD +160. He set personal best in targets, receptions and receiving yards last season with the Chiefs. That included nine receiving touchdowns and one rushing score. The Chiefs need to put up points if they want to stay in this game, and Mahomes will lean on a player he has good chemistry with in McKinnon. Plus, this is the highest total on the board for Week 1.
Walder: Cameron Sutton OVER 2.5 solo tackles (+130 at DraftKings). I'm going off my new tackles model, which pegs him at 3.4 solos for this game, but I also think Kelce's injury plays a role here. With the superstar TE possibly out, Mahomes likely will have to throw outside more, and that's where Sutton will be.
Fulghum: Skyy Moore OVER 45.5 receiving yards (-129). There is no doubt in my mind that the biggest beneficiary of Kelce's absence will be Moore. Moore was already third in the pecking order behind Kelce and Marquez Valdes-Scantling in terms of predicted snap rate this season, but if Kelce misses time, he'll bump up to first or second, and more importantly he'll operate in those short and intermediate areas of the field that Kelce would have occupied. I wouldn't be surprised to see Moore get seven-plus targets Thursday night.
Marks: Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 3.5 receptions and OVER 29.5 receiving yards (DraftKings). I am all-in on Gibbs. In college, he was used in almost 80% of passing plays, averaging 10 yards per target -- hence, why he was drafted in the first round. Lions OC Johnson has said, "Gibbs will be utilized in a variety of ways that will be surprising." Kansas City's defense was last in defending RBs last season vs. the pass; it allowed 112 receptions to running backs, and those backs averaged over 47 yards per game.
Marks: David Montgomery Anytime TD. Montgomery takes over the role of Jamaal Williams, who scored 17 rushing touchdowns for the Lions last season. The Bears used Montgomery as their goal line back, and he should be even better than Williams. Kansas City will likely be without Jones, making its interior defense line weak against the run.
Moody: Isiah Pacheco OVER 49.5 rushing yards per game. This prop immediately caught my eye after learning about Kelce's hyperextended knee. Over the past five seasons, the Chiefs have relied more on their running game when Kelce isn't on the field. As a rookie, Pacheco led the Chiefs with 830 rushing yards and added 197 yards in the playoffs behind an offensive line that was fifth in run block win rate. Pacheco also ranked 14th in the league with 2.91 rushing yards per carry before contact. This season, Pacheco could shine even brighter behind a Chiefs offensive line with two new tackles. It's also important to note that the Lions allowed 146.5 rushing yards per game last season.
Moody: Jared Goff OVER 35.5 pass attempts. Goff threw for 4,438 yards and 29 touchdowns last season under first-year offensive coordinator Johnson, who returned to the team after emerging as a head-coaching candidate late last season. Johnson and Goff should be even more calibrated this year. Goff averaged 34.5 pass attempts per game in 2022 and should exceed that number trying to keep up with the high-octane Chiefs offense. Expect the Lions QB to rely heavily on wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown and rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs on Thursday night.
Marks: Skyy Moore OVER 44.5 receiving yards. If Kelce is inactive, Moore has the potential to lead the Chiefs in targets. He is masterful at creating separation and will be running out of the slot the majority of the time. The Lions were weak last season vs. slot receivers, allowing 11 yards per target, a 76% catch rate and a 6% touchdown rate.