The NFL playoffs are coming to a crescendo, with the matchups for the conference championship games now set.
It begins Sunday with an Interstate 95 showdown between the No. 2 seed Philadelphia Eagles (16-3, 12-17 against the spread, including playoffs) and the sixth-seeded Washington Commanders (14-5, 13-6 ATS) for the NFC title.
The Eagles held off a late Los Angeles Rams comeback for a 28-22 win last Sunday in the divisional round to secure a matchup with their NFC East rivals, who upset the top-seeded Detroit Lions 45-31 on Saturday to advance. It will be the third matchup of the season between these two teams, with the Eagles winning 26-18 as 4.5-point favorites at home in Week 11 and the Commanders evening the series with a 36-33 home victory as 4.5-point underdogs in Week 16.
The Eagles opened as 5-point favorites in the NFC Championship Game.
On the AFC side of the bracket, the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs (16-2, 7-11 ATS) punched their ticket to a seventh straight conference title game with Saturday's 23-14 win over the Houston Texans in the divisional round.
The conference's top seed will face the Buffalo Bills (15-4, 12-7 ATS), who escaped the Baltimore Ravens 27-25 on Sunday to force a rematch of the AFC Championship Game from the 2020 season. Kansas City won that game 38-24. The Chiefs fell to the Bills 30-21 in Buffalo in Week 11 this season.
Kansas City opened as a 1-point favorite for Sunday's matchup.
Super Bowl LIX will be played Feb. 9 (6:30 p.m. ET, Fox) at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.
Here are the updated lines, spreads and totals for the NFC and AFC conference championship games.
Odds as of publication. For the most current odds, visit ESPN BET
Tedy Bruschi explains why the Texans faltered against the Chiefs and why Patrick Mahomes & Co. are so dominant in playoff games.
Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles -6
Sunday, 3 p.m., FOX
Money Line: Commanders (+240); Eagles (-290)
Total: 47.5; Opened: 48.5
FPI favorite: Eagles by 5.1, 63.7% to win outright
Betting trends
The Commanders were 150-1 to win the Super Bowl entering the season, which would match the longest preseason odds for a Super Bowl participant since the NFL adopted a 16-game schedule in 1978.
Their Super Bowl odds were as long as 200-1 during the season prior to upsetting the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 3.
Underdogs were 4-0 ATS in the divisional round and are 7-3 ATS this postseason. Home teams are 6-4 ATS. Unders are 6-4.
Home teams were 0-2 ATS in conference championships last season. Over the last three postseasons, home teams are 2-4 ATS and unders are 5-1 in conference championship games.
The Eagles are 16-24-1 ATS when laying at least four points under Nick Sirianni including playoffs and 6-14 ATS including playoffs since the start of last season (5-6 ATS this season).
Washington is 15-5 ATS in the playoffs since 1987, including 3-0 ATS since 2020.
The Commanders are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games.
The Commanders are 5-3 outright and 6-2 ATS as underdogs this season, with three straight outright wins. They are 3-2 outright and 4-1 ATS when getting at least four points, with overs going 4-1 in those games.
The Commanders are 9-1 ATS when the over/under is 46 or higher this season.
The Eagles have won nine straight home games (5-4 ATS). They are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.
The Eagles are 5-1 ATS in division games this season.
Since 1999, teams favored by at least four points in conference championship games are 10-16 ATS. They are 0-3 ATS and 1-2 outright in the last three games.
Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs -2
Sunday, 6:30 p.m., CBS, Paramount+
Money Line: Bills (+110); Chiefs (-130)
Total: 47.5; Opened: 48.5
FPI favorite: Bills by 1.6, 54.6% to win outright
Betting trends
The Bills were 12-7 ATS this season, while the Chiefs were 7-11 ATS. The Bills also went over their team total in 14 of 19 games, the highest rate in the NFL.
This is the eighth straight matchup between Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes where neither team is favored by more than three points, the longest streak in any quarterback head-to-head matchup in the Super Bowl era.
Patrick Mahomes is 22-9-1 ATS (.710) when the line is between +3 and -3, and Josh Allen is 25-15-2 ATS (.625). The Bills have covered four straight games in that role.
Allen and Mahomes are 4-4 outright and ATS against each other. However, while Allen is 4-1 outright and ATS against Mahomes in the regular season, Mahomes is 3-0 outright and ATS in the playoffs. All three playoff meetings have gone over the total (overs are 6-2 overall in their matchups).
Mahomes is 12-5 ATS in his playoff career, including 6-1 ATS in his last seven games. The only non-cover in his last seven games came last week when the Chiefs won by 9 as 9.5-point favorites on the closing line.
The Chiefs are 9-0 outright at home this season but only 3-6 ATS and 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.
Four straight Bills road games have gone over the total.
The Chiefs have won nine games this season in which they did not cover the spread (9-2), the most wins in a single season in the Super Bowl era (including playoffs). Mahomes is 36-24 outright when not covering the spread (.600), the only quarterback in the Super Bowl era with a winning record in that role (minimum five games).
Allen is 19-15-1 ATS in his career as an underdog
The Chiefs are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games.