PHILADELPHIA -- This Philadelphia Eagles season has felt like a public tug-of-war between the 2023 team that fell apart and the '24 squad that won it all.
The last two iterations of this group met such dramatic and contrasting fates that it's only natural to wonder, Well, which one are you?
The '23 side has been gaining mental rope of late. Their recent three-game skid has felt all too familiar to the slide when they dropped six of seven down the stretch that year. It's understandable if much of this fan base has gone into a reflexive, crouched position, awaiting their beloved team's inevitable demise.
It can be hard to remember given the weight the past two years carry that this Eagles season is uniquely its own.
A collapse is not inevitable; it's actually unlikely.
The Eagles have the ninth-easiest remaining strength of schedule in the NFL, according to ESPN's Football Power Index. They play the 2-11 Las Vegas Raiders at home Sunday. Two of their final three games are against the 3-10 Washington Commanders, sandwiching a Dec. 28th trip to take on the 9-4 Buffalo Bills.
Holding a game-and-a-half lead over the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC East, Philadelphia has a 91.5% chance to win the division, a 25% chance to advance to the conference championship and a 12% chance to make it to the Super Bowl, per FPI. If the season ended today, they'd be the No. 3 seed in the NFC and host a playoff game.
"I might catch some slack for this: The first six years of my football career, I made it to the playoffs one time. There are a lot of teams who would love to be in our position right now at 8-5," said running back Saquon Barkley in the immediate aftermath of the Eagles' 22-19 overtime loss to the Los Angeles Chargers Monday. "That doesn't mean I wouldn't want to be 13-0 -- I promise you, you probably won't find someone more competitive than me -- but I understand the nature of the NFL and how hard football is.
"And everything we want is still there. Am I wrong when I say that? It's the truth. That's the mindset we have to have -- so what, now what? -- and just move on and get better."
The defense is the great separator between the '23 and '25 groups. The '23 unit endured a late-season change in defensive playcallers from Sean Desai to Matt Patricia -- a move that ultimately made them even more disjointed and ineffective. Now they are guided by one of the best in the business in Vic Fangio and have shown the ability to dominate games, as they did Monday by pressuring Justin Herbert on 68% of his dropbacks and sacking him seven times even without the services of defensive tackle Jalen Carter (shoulder).
It's the offense that has been down bad, especially of late. In a reversal of last year's script, the Eagles have gotten noticeably worse since their Week 9 bye, averaging only 16.2 points over their past five games. Quarterback Jalen Hurts is coming off a five-turnover game, leading to outside conversation about whether he should be benched if his struggles continue -- a notion coach Nick Sirianni dismissed as "ridiculous."
The external noise is beginning to reach a fever pitch. Internally, tone-setters like Barkley and defensive tackle Jordan Davis are providing counter-messaging.
"The offense is going to have their games. I am so deep into this faith in the offense that I have that one day, hopefully very, very soon, it's going to click, and when it does click, watch out," Davis told reporters this week.
"We all know that we're capable of much more. We all know we can go out there and we can execute and we can be dominant, but we just have to keep putting in the work and keeping the faith, because I have a feeling a lot of people are losing faith, whether that's [the media], the fans, whatever, but me, I'm still 10 toes down for this team. I hope, I hope we go out there one game and we put a 100-ball on them."
It's hard to envision the offense morphing into some high-octane attack on a consistent basis after 13 weeks of evidence to the contrary. But there were some signs of life against the Chargers. Barkley ripped off a 50-plus yard touchdown and they dipped further into the playbook during a week in which Sirianni got more involved. With right tackle Lane Johnson due back soon from a foot injury, there's reason to believe things can turn -- especially given the softer schedule down the stretch.
"Sometimes it just doesn't make sense: You're working hard, you're doing things right and it's not showing up to the games. I'm a big believer in you have to have a positive mindset that it's going to change because we're doing everything right and it's going to break at some point and we need it sooner rather than later in my opinion," Barkley said. "We've got the guys, we've got the coaches, we've got the men and women on staff. For me, my confidence is not shot at all. I'm super confident because of the organization I'm a part of."
A little run to end the season would swing the public tide back in '24's favor. The attrition from a long championship season has shown up all year, most notably along a normally dominant offensive front. There's been a dip in health and execution and discipline, and it's fair to wonder if that will bite them at some point in the postseason despite all their talent.
But the Eagles have a highly manageable close to the regular season, giving them ample opportunity to distance themselves from the team that collapsed and to forge a new identity altogether.
Or, they could lose to the Raiders, and then, yeah, it really would be '23 all over again.